UFC Fight Night Blanchfield VS Barber Breakdown: Full Card Analysis & Picks

Fight #1: Rayanne dos Santos vs. Alice Ardelean (Women’s Strawweight)

This should be a tightly contested fight between two high-volume strikers. Ardelean brings relentless pressure and isn’t afraid to let her hands go—she landed 92 strikes in her last bout. Rayanne dos Santos can match that pace on the feet but offers more versatility.

While her grappling hasn’t been on display in the UFC yet, she holds 8 submission victories and a championship pedigree as a former Invicta FC titleholder. Rayanne also owns the stronger strength of schedule. If she mixes in her ground game, she could take over.

Pick: Rayanne dos Santos via Decision

Fight #2: MarQuel Mederos vs. Bolaji Oki (Men’s Lightweight)

Expect a high-paced striking affair here. Oki has the clear power edge, but Mederos brings suffocating pressure and a high fight IQ. He’s coming out of FactoryX Muay Thai, known for producing smart and durable fighters.

Oki’s cardio hasn’t been truly tested yet, and he’s made questionable grappling decisions in past fights. Mederos is savvy enough to capitalize on those mistakes. As long as he avoids the big shot, he has the tools to edge out a win.

Pick: MarQuel Mederos via Decision

Fight #3: Andreas Gustafsson vs. Trevin Giles (Men’s Welterweight)

This is a great first UFC test for Gustafsson. Giles is the more experienced fighter and still fairly young, but he’s currently on a three-fight skid, with two of those losses coming via finish.

Gustafsson is wild but effective—he throws heavy and mixes in takedowns. Despite being older, he has less wear and tear. If he pushes the pace early, Giles may not be able to withstand the pressure.

Pick: Gustafsson via KO

Fight #4: Jordan Leavitt vs. Kurt Holobaugh (Men’s Lightweight)

Both fighters are skilled grapplers, but they approach striking differently. Holobaugh throws looping hooks, while Leavitt relies on a kick-heavy style. The ground game is where this fight could be won or lost.

Leavitt is younger and has shown the ability to maintain top control. Holobaugh has struggled with takedown defense and often stays grounded too long. If Leavitt can get this to the mat, he should control the fight.

Pick: Jordan Leavitt via Decision

Fight #5: Allan Nascimento vs. Jafel Filho (Men’s Flyweight)

This is a high-level grappling matchup. Filho is 3-1 in the UFC with all wins by finish and appears to be in his athletic prime. Nascimento has top-tier grappling experience but hasn’t fought in two years due to injuries.

Even though they’re close in age, Nascimento’s layoff and injuries could be a factor. Filho’s explosiveness and finishing ability give him the edge in what should be a competitive fight.

Pick: Jafel Filho via Decision

Fight #6: Zach Reese vs. Dusko Todorovic (Men’s Middleweight)

This one won’t go the distance. Both fighters love to bang, but durability has been an issue for each. Reese offers more paths to victory with his mix of striking and submission skills.

If Reese leads the exchanges and avoids the early blitz, he should find a finish—either by knockout or submission.

Pick: Zach Reese via Finish (KO or Sub)

Fight #7: Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson (Women’s Bantamweight)

This is a high-level matchup between two top contenders. Both women are well-rounded, but Vieira has the physical edge. She impressed in her last performance against Kayla Harrison, showing control and composure.

Chiasson is dynamic, especially with her elbows on the ground, but Vieira’s strength could dictate where this fight takes place. Expect her to control the clinch and grappling exchanges.

Pick: Ketlen Vieira via Decision

Fight #8: Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes (Men’s Light Heavyweight)

Classic striker vs. grappler bout. Jacoby is the superior striker with a high fight IQ and a crisp jab. He’s shown an ability to control range and pace. Lopes, while developing his stand-up, will need to make this a grimy, close-quarters fight to win.

As long as Jacoby keeps the fight standing, he should cruise.

Pick: Dustin Jacoby via Decision

Fight #9: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Billy Ray Goff (Men’s Welterweight)

A short-notice matchup with some intrigue. Brahimaj is a dangerous grappler but has shown cardio issues. Goff is a pressure-heavy striker who can survive the early grappling and turn the tide late.

If Goff weathers the storm, expect him to pour it on in the second half.

Pick: Billy Ray Goff via Late TKO

Fight #10: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ľudovít Klein (Men’s Lightweight)

This might be the most evenly matched fight on the card. Gamrot is a top-tier wrestler who breaks opponents with pressure and takedowns. Klein is fast, explosive, and has excellent takedown defense.

This fight could come down to optics: Gamrot’s control time vs. Klein’s damage. Klein has the momentum and could edge out a decision if he keeps it standing.

Pick: Ľudovít Klein via Split Decision

Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber (Women’s Flyweight)

A potential title eliminator featuring two of the division’s brightest young stars. Barber brings powerful striking and a killer instinct. Blanchfield, on the other hand, is a relentless grappler with top-level control and submission threats.

Barber’s takedown defense has been questionable, and Blanchfield is the type to exploit that. If this hits the mat repeatedly, it’s Blanchfield’s fight to lose.

Pick: Erin Blanchfield via Decision